The most reliable path to success is not what you think.

There’s a story behind that.

This is your daily message from Chad #1063 to upgrade your mental game today by telling yourself a better story, because the most important story you hear is the story you tell yourself. And this message is dedicated to Allan and Linda Zwirn on their anniversary.

Here’s the upgrade: You can’t avoid every danger in this world, but upgraded thinking knows you can avoid the standard stupidities.

Here’s the story. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner of more than sixty years, used to say it like this. “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” He’d say, “Smart men go broke three ways: liquor, ladies, and leverage.” His solution was inversion. Don’t ask how to win. Ask how to lose, and then don’t do that. This is why the most reliable path to success is elusive to many. People focus on being smart, when all that’s needed is to not be stupid.

I was thinking about this because of a few headlines from this week. In South Africa, a man tried to drive his vehicle through a flooded river. He didn’t make it. Days later, a search helicopter spotted a fifteen-foot crocodile sunning itself on the bank, and something about the shape of it looked wrong. When authorities opened the crocodile up, they found the missing man inside. They also found several pairs of men’s shoes that did not belong to him.

In Central Africa, a big game hunter was stalking antelope when a momma elephant felt he was getting a little too close to her babies, so she trampled him to death. The hunter became the hunted.

And a couple on a luxury nature cruise died of hantavirus. One of the stops on this nature cruise was in a South American garbage dump. They were told it would be a great place to watch birds. They didn’t think about the other creatures that are attracted to garbage dumps and they contracted a disease that killed them.

Here’s the Munger move. Don’t ask how to have a great trip. Ask how a trip ends with you dead, and then don’t do that. Don’t drive into the river. Don’t stalk antelope in elephant country. Don’t go bird watching in a garbage dump where rats leave behind the substances that carry deadly viruses.

These are not subtle dangers. These are the standard stupidities. And the reason Munger called them that is because smart people fall into them every single day. The hunter had guns and experience. The cruisers had passports and a bucket list. The driver had a vehicle he trusted. None of them thought they were being foolish. They thought they were being adventurous.

Sometimes you can see the danger. Sometimes you can’t. The hantavirus you can’t see. The fifteen-foot crocodile, you can. No one is smart enough to anticipate every contingency, but anyone can avoid the obvious dumb move.

The better story to tell yourself is, “I don’t have to be brilliant. I just have to be consistently not stupid.” You will never eliminate every risk in your life. You won’t see the cancer coming. You won’t see the drunk driver. You won’t see the freak accident. But you can stay out of the dump. You can keep your car out of the river. You can take three seconds before you do the obviously dumb thing and ask yourself, would Munger laugh at me for this?

That’s the whole game. Invert. Avoid the standard stupidities. Live long enough to enjoy the rest.

Tell me a story of a standard stupidity you avoided to fromchadsmith@gmail.com. Send someone a text and tell them, “Be safe out there today. Try to avoid any dumb moves.” You can get a free copy of my book, The Most Powerful Story in the World, by going to fromchad.gumroad.com. The transcript of this message and hundreds of others are always available at http://www.fromchad.com.